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In Brief Spot keeps printing new lows in yen, rupee, and rupiah even as central banks intervene across spot, NDF, and offshore channels. That isn't intervention failing. It's intervention doing the on…
In Brief Kalshi just got a $1B Series F at a $22B valuation. But what's really going on is that some smart investors like Coatue, Sequoia, and Andreessen Horowitz are seeing event contracts as a way t…
In Brief The loud worry in private credit right now is middlemarket default. Loosecovenant deals from 2021, borrowers paying in IOUs instead of cash, a major fund freezing redemptions back in March. T…
In Brief The market is treating Hormuz mostly as an energy story. That is too narrow. The cleaner risk is fertilizer: if Gulflinked nitrogen supply stays disrupted into planting and midseason applicat…
In Brief My conclusion: this is not a normal memory cycle anymore. The market is still right to discount generic DRAM cyclicality, but it is probably underpricing the durability of scarce AIlinked mem…